Syria’s southern province of Suwayda is once again at the center of concerns. Warnings are being voiced about a possible resumption of clashes, while Damascus accuses Israel of supporting armed groups. For Jordan, which shares a long border with Syria, this is no distant issue: stability in the neighboring country’s south is seen as part of Jordan’s own national security. Amman is therefore working with Damascus and Washington to cement agreements that could keep Suwayda from sliding back into war.
The Jerusalem Post, citing a Syrian government representative, reported that Damascus fears Druze armed groups may attack government forces in the coming days and does not rule out Israeli encouragement or support for such an operation. According to the representative, the concern has been heightened by groups moving near the front lines and Druze figures’ statements about the possible return of several villages. Reports also mention increased Israeli aerial surveillance over Suwayda, Damascus and southern Syria; an Israeli helicopter landing and the transfer of weapons and ammunition; as well as reports of equipment being moved to Jabal al-Druze and possible preparations for an observation and early-warning base. These reports have not been independently confirmed.
Jordan’s King Abdullah II warned of the danger of continuing what he called Israel’s “aggressive course” in southern Syria. Speaking at the UN, he pointed to repeated Israeli incursions and attempts to create new geographic realities, including ones affecting vital water sources. In a phone call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the king again spoke about the consequences of escalation and stressed that Jordan supports Syria’s efforts to strengthen security, stability and sovereignty.
Jordanian analyst Fahd al-Khaitan believes a new major military confrontation in Suwayda is unlikely at this stage. In his view, any Druze group that chooses to attack Damascus would face a forceful military response and give the Syrian government a pretext to strike the province. The analyst is confident that Jordan will not intervene militarily in Syria’s internal conflict, but will offer Damascus political support and work with US Special Envoy Tom Barrack to prevent a possible escalation. He considers major military scenarios unlikely before Israel’s elections, since the parties’ calculations are tied to Israel’s political climate.
An official Jordanian source told Al Jazeera Net that Amman categorically rejected calls to open a direct border corridor to Suwayda on humanitarian grounds. Jordan believes this would violate Syrian sovereignty and could entrench the province’s separation from the state. An Israeli proposal to use a bypass road through Jordanian territory to deliver aid to groups in Suwayda was also rejected. Amman insists on respect for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, maintains daily coordination with the Syrian side at the police, military and intelligence levels, and calls the security of its borders a “red line.” Jordan has previously carried out pre-emptive airstrikes against the positions of smugglers and drug traffickers in Syria, particularly in the areas of Suwayda and Daraa.
A Syrian government representative told the SANA news agency that the Druze community of Suwayda has always been, and remains, an integral part of Syria’s national fabric, and firmly rejected its politicization or its being drawn into Israeli propaganda and elections. Damascus accuses Israel of playing a major, calculated role in undermining civil peace in the province last summer. According to the Syrian side, Israel armed an illegal militia to sow chaos and create a pretext for a wider war. Damascus says it foiled this plan, while US mediation helped halt Israeli shelling that had prevented the government from resolving clashes between Druze and Bedouins. Damascus is now advancing a trilateral “road map” for Suwayda’s reintegration with the United States and Jordan, and calling on the international community to pressure Israel to uphold the 1974 Disengagement Agreement and refrain from interfering in Syrian affairs.
Jordanian Interior Minister Mazin al-Faraya confirmed that Jordan cooperates directly with the Syrian side on security matters every day, including combating smuggling and protecting the border. He said Amman handles the Suwayda file through Syria’s official state institutions and does not interfere in its neighbor’s internal affairs. Jordan is nevertheless concerned that a weakening of central authority or a security vacuum could revive smuggling networks and lead to the emergence of armed zones of influence near the border.
Overall, the situation around Suwayda remains fragile and complex: local tensions are intertwined with Israeli actions, Damascus’s interests, Washington’s mediation and Jordan’s concerns. Amman is balancing firm border protection with support for Syrian sovereignty, seeking neither military intervention nor the emergence of enclaves controlled by outside powers along its frontier. The key takeaway for an international audience is clear: de-escalation in southern Syria matters not only to Damascus and the Druze community, but also to regional security, and any new wave of violence could quickly spread beyond a single province.
Background to the News
Who are the Druze, how do their religious beliefs and communal organization differ from the main branches of Islam in Syria, and why are they concentrated around Jabal al-Druze? — The Druze are an Arabic-speaking esoteric religious community whose faith traces its origins to 11th-century Ismaili Shiism but is considered a separate religion. The Druze do not proselytize, marriages are usually within the community, and only some initiates (“uqqal”) have access to religious teachings. Unlike Sunni and Shia Islam, the Druze have no unified church hierarchy or five pillars of Islam that are obligatory for all in their traditional form. Community life is organized around elders, religious sheikhs and influential families. Their concentration around Jabal al-Druze (Jabal al-Arab) is explained by migrations from Lebanon in the 18th and 19th centuries, the mountainous terrain’s value as a refuge, Ottoman policies and a desire for communal autonomy. Over time, the area became Syria’s main Druze center.
How have relations between the Druze and Bedouin tribes in southern Syria developed historically, and why can local disputes over land, water or influence in Suwayda quickly escalate into a nationwide crisis? — Relations between the Druze and Bedouin tribes in southern Syria have historically combined coexistence, alliances, trade and patronage with periodic armed conflicts over grazing land, territory, water and control of roads. Ottoman and French “divide and rule” policies often reinforced these tensions. After independence, land reforms, Baathist policies and struggles for influence among clans and tribes added new sources of conflict. Suwayda has become a particularly sensitive flashpoint: it is a Druze center with cross-border ties, close to Jordan and the Golan Heights, and since 2023 has been one of the centers of anti-government protests. As a result, a local dispute can easily become a nationwide crisis if Damascus, tribal networks, Druze religious and political leaders, and outside actors—including Jordan, Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia—become involved.
What exactly does the 1974 Disengagement Agreement between Syria and Israel provide for, and what military and monitoring mechanisms did it establish on the Golan Heights? — The 1974 Disengagement Agreement, concluded after the Yom Kippur War, provided for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli and Syrian forces, an exchange of prisoners and the return of Quneitra to Syrian control. It established a buffer zone between Lines A and B, where only UN forces may be deployed, as well as zones of limitation on both sides, with restrictions on tanks, artillery and other forces. The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) was established to monitor the agreement, with support from military observers and liaison officers. The agreement is not a peace treaty, but a ceasefire and disengagement arrangement.
Who is Tom Barrack, and what role does he play in US diplomacy on Syria, Jordan and the southern region more broadly? — Tom Barrack is an American financier, founder of Colony Capital, a longtime ally of Donald Trump and chairman of Trump’s 2017 inaugural committee. In 2024, Trump nominated him to serve as US ambassador to Turkey, and the Senate confirmed him. In the context of Syria, Jordan and the region’s south, his role is linked primarily to Turkey as a key player on Syria. He serves as a political channel between Washington and Ankara on Syrian settlement, border security, refugees, the fight against ISIS and countering Iranian influence. This is less a role as a special envoy for Syria than one of diplomatic coordination through Ankara, taking Jordan’s interests and the sensitivity of southern Syria into account.
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Full article: Warnings of escalation in Suwayda: How is Jordan protecting its borders and preventing an explosion?